International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

I was recently fortunate enough to attend the International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction in Boulder, Colorado. This was a week-long event organised by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and was a joint meeting with two conferences taking place simultaneously: the Second International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) and the Second International Conference on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction (S2D). There were also joint sessions addressing common issues surrounding prediction on these timescales.

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to seasonal (from around 2 weeks to a season) to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these timescales a valuable tool for policymakers. As a result, there is an increasingly large interest within the scientific and operational forecasting communities in developing forecasts to improve our ability to predict severe weather events. On S2S timescales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On S2D timescales, while the focus broadly remains on similar events (such as precipitation and surface temperatures), deciphering the roles of internal and externally-forced variability in forecasts also becomes important.

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Attendees of the International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

The conferences were attended by nearly 350 people, of which 92 were Early Career Scientists (either current PhD students or those who completed their PhD within the last 5-7 years), from 38 different countries. There were both oral and poster presentations on a wide variety of topics, including mechanisms of S2S and S2D predictability (e.g. the stratosphere and tropical-extratropical teleconnections) and current modelling issues in S2S and S2D prediction. I was fortunate to be able to give an oral presentation about some of my recently published work, in which we examine the performance of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model at representing a teleconnection mechanism which links Indian monsoon precipitation to weather and climate variations across the Northern Hemisphere. After my talk I spoke to several other people who are working on similar topics, which was very beneficial and helped give me ideas for analysis that I could carry out as part of my own research.

One of the best things about attending an international conference is the networking opportunities that it presents, both with people you already know and with potential future collaborators from other institutions. This conference was no exception, and as well as lunch and coffee breaks there was an Early Career Scientists evening meal. This gave me a chance to meet scientists from all over the world who are at a similar stage of their career to myself.

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The view from the NCAR Mesa Lab

Boulder is located at the foot of the Rocky Mountains, so after the conference I took the opportunity to do some hiking on a few of the many trails that lead out from the city. I also took a trip up to NCAR’s Mesa Lab, which is located up the hillside away from the city and has spectacular views across Boulder and the high plains of Colorado, as well as a visitor centre with meteorological exhibits. It was a great experience to attend this conference and I am very grateful to NERC and the SummerTIME project for funding my travel and accommodation.

Email: j.beverley@pgr.reading.ac.uk

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