The Secret “Glow” of Thirsty Plants: How Satellites are Learning to Spot Drought Before It Happens

By Khomkrit (Guy) Onkaew – k.onkaew@pgr.reading.ac.uk

If you look out at a cornfield or a dense forest, you see green. That’s chlorophyll, the pigment plants use to turn sunlight into energy. But there is something else happening in those leaves that the human eye completely misses. While they are basking in the sun, plants are also glowing.

During photosynthesis, plants absorb sunlight to create food. However, they don’t use 100% of the light they take in. A small fraction of that unused solar energy is re-emitted by the plant as a faint, reddish glow. This phenomenon is called Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, or SIF.

Left: Plant under daylight (535 nm). Right: Plant under UV light (365 nm), showing the reddish glow. (image source: https://www.exoticaesoterica.com/magazine/plantuvfluorescence)

Think of SIF as the “heartbeat” of a plant’s metabolism. When a plant is healthy and photosynthesising vigorously, this glow follows a regular pattern. But when a plant gets stressed — perhaps it’s too hot, or it hasn’t rained in weeks — that heartbeat changes.

For years, scientists have used special satellites to measure this glow from space to estimate how well vegetation is growing. Ideally, this glow would tell us exactly how productive the plants are. But there is a catch: a plant’s glow isn’t just determined by how much sun it gets; it is also determined by its “efficiency” in using that light.

This brings us to a question: What happens to that efficiency when the soil dries out?

Imagine you kink a garden hose: as you restrict the water, the flow changes. Similarly, when plants run out of water in the soil, they close their stomata — tiny pores on their leaves — to save moisture. This shuts down photosynthesis. The plant then has to deal with all that incoming sunlight that it can no longer use. To protect itself, the plant dissipates that excess energy as heat, which causes the fluorescence glow to dim or change in efficiency.

In other words, this means that long before a crop turns yellow and dies from drought, its glow changes. If we can understand the relationship between soil moisture and glow, we could potentially predict crop failures and droughts much earlier than we can by just looking at how green the plants are.

Decoding the Signal: A New Study on Africa’s Ecosystems

This is where our study steps in. We focused on the African continent to solve a specific puzzle: How does soil moisture stress change the fluorescence efficiency of plants?

Africa offers the perfect laboratory for this question because it holds almost every type of ecosystem imaginable, from the bone-dry Sahara and the semi-arid savannas to the lush Congo rainforest. We combined satellite data from The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument TROPOMI, which measures the SIF glow, with a sophisticated land model, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), which estimates soil moisture deep in the ground.

We tested two different models to see which one better predicted the actual glow observed by satellites:

1. The Baseline Model: Assumed the glow depends only on the light the plant absorbs.

2. The Soil Moisture Model: Assumed the glow is influenced by both the light absorbed and how wet the soil is.

African Plants’ Thirst Strategies

Our study produced some fascinating results regarding how different plants handle thirst. We found that fluorescence efficiency is not one-size-fits-all; it depends entirely on the plant’s “lifestyle”.

1. The “Panickers”: Croplands and Grasslands

We discovered that croplands and grasslands are the “drama queens” of the plant world; they easily panic as soon as the soil dries. These plants show the strongest reaction to soil moisture. When the topsoil dries out, their efficiency plummets; when the soil is wet, their efficiency spikes. This makes sense because crops like maize usually have shallow roots. They live and die by the moisture in the top layer of dirt, making them incredibly sensitive monitors for agricultural drought.

2. The “Resilient”: Evergreen Forests

On the other hand, evergreen forests (like those in the Congo basin) were surprisingly indifferent. Their fluorescence efficiency barely changed even when soil moisture levels changed. Why? These trees have deep, complex root systems that can tap into groundwater reserves far below the surface. They don’t panic when the topsoil gets dry because they have a backup water supply.

3. The “Balancers”: Savannas and Shrublands

Moreover, we found that plants in semi-arid regions like the Sahel have evolved to be adaptive. They ramp up their efficiency quickly at the first sign of rain, but don’t waste extra energy once they have “enough” water.

The Map of Improvement

We found that adding soil moisture data to these models significantly improved their ability to simulate the plant glow in semi-arid regions, such as the Sahel and Southern Africa (the blue area in Figure C). In these water-limited environments, you cannot understand the plant’s light signal without understanding the water in the soil.

However, the study also highlighted where the models fail. In wetlands such as the Okavango Delta and the Sudd Swamp (Locations 5 and 6 in Figure C, respectively), adding soil moisture data worsened the model or yielded no improvement. This is likely because satellite models struggle to understand complex water systems where water flows horizontally or sits just below the surface, keeping plants happy even when the model thinks they should be dry.

Spatial distribution maps of RMSE for two SIF simulation models across Africa. (a) RMSE between observed SIF and the Baseline Model (SIFa), which does not include soil moisture availability (β). (b) RMSE between observed SIF and the Soil Moisture Model (SIFb), which includes β. (c) RMSE difference (ΔRMSE = RMSEb − RMSEa). Blue regions (ΔRMSE < 0) indicate areas where including β improves model performance (Model 2 outperforms), while red areas (ΔRMSE > 0) show regions where including β worsens the fit. Grey areas indicate missing data.

The Takeaway

This research is a step toward “context-dependent” monitoring. We can’t just look at a satellite image and apply a single rule to the whole planet. To truly monitor the health of our food systems and forests from space, we have to treat a shallow-rooted cornfield in a semi-arid zone differently from a deep-rooted tree in a tropical forest. By linking the “glow” of the plants to the water in the soil, we are getting closer to a real-time health check for the Earth’s vegetation.

More details from the paper: https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2026.2618097

New Forecast Model Provides First Global Scale Seasonal River Flow Forecasts

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Over the past ~decade, extended-range forecasts of river flow have begun to emerge around the globe, combining meteorological forecasts with hydrological models to provide seasonal hydro-meteorological outlooks. Seasonal forecasts of river flow could be useful in providing early indications of potential floods and droughts; information that could be of benefit for disaster risk reduction, resilience and humanitarian aid, alongside applications in agriculture and water resource management.

While seasonal river flow forecasting systems exist for some regions around the world, such as the U.S., Australia, Africa and Europe, the forecasts are not always accessible, and forecasts in other regions and at the global scale are few and far between.  In order to gain a global overview of the upcoming hydrological situation, other information tends to be used – for example historical probabilities based on past conditions, or seasonal forecasts of precipitation. However, precipitation forecasts may not be the best indicator of floodiness, as the link between precipitation and floodiness is non-linear. A recent paper by Coughlan-de-Perez et al (2017), “should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?”, states:

“Ultimately, the most informative forecasts of flood hazard at the seasonal scale are streamflow forecasts using hydrological models calibrated for individual river basins. While this is more computationally and resource intensive, better forecasts of seasonal flood risk could be of immense use to the disaster preparedness community.”

twitter_screenshotOver the past months, researchers in the Water@Reading* research group have been working with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to set up a new global scale hydro-meteorological seasonal forecasting system. Last week, on 10th November 2017, the new forecasting system was officially launched as an addition to the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS is co-developed by ECMWF and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services, and provides flood forecasts for the entire globe up to 30 days in advance. Now, GloFAS also provides seasonal river flow outlooks for the global river network, out to 4 months ahead – meaning that for the first time, operational seasonal river flow forecasts exist at the global scale – providing globally consistent forecasts, and forecasts for countries and regions where no other forecasts are available.

The new seasonal outlook is produced by forcing the Lisflood hydrological river routing model with surface and sub-surface runoff from SEAS5, the latest version of ECMWF’s seasonal forecasting system, (also launched last week), which consists of 51 ensemble members at ~35km horizontal resolution. Lisflood simulates the groundwater and routing processes, producing a probabilistic forecast of river flow at 0.1o horizontal resolution (~10km, the resolution of Lisflood) out to four months, initialised using the latest ERA-5 model reanalysis.

The seasonal outlook is displayed as three new layers in the GloFAS web interface, which is publicly (and freely) available at www.globalfloods.eu. The first of these gives a global overview of the maximum probability of unusually high or low river flow (defined as flow exceeding the 80th or falling below the 20th percentile of the model climatology), during the 4-month forecast horizon, in each of the 306 major world river basins used in GloFAS-Seasonal.

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The new GloFAS Seasonal Outlook Basin Overview and River Network Layers.

The second layer provides further sub-basin-scale detail, by displaying the global river network (all pixels with an upstream area >1500km2), again coloured according to the maximum probability of unusually high or low river flow during the 4-month forecast horizon. In the third layer, reporting points with global coverage are displayed, where more forecast information is available. At these points, an ensemble hydrograph is provided showing the 4-month forecast of river flow, with thresholds for comparison of the forecast to typical or extreme conditions based on the model climatology. Also displayed is a persistence diagram showing the weekly probability of exceedance for the current and previous three forecasts.

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The new GloFAS Seasonal Outlook showing the river network and reporting points providing hydrographs and persistence diagrams.

Over the coming months, an evaluation of the system will be completed – for now, users are advised to evaluate the forecasts for their particular application. We welcome any feedback on the forecast visualisations and skill – feel free to contact me at the email address below!

To find out more, you can see the University’s press release here, further information on SEAS5 here, and the user information on the seasonal outlook GloFAS layers here.

*Water@Reading is “a vibrant cross-faculty centre of research excellence at the University of Reading, delivering world class knowledge in water science, policy and societal impacts for the UK and internationally.”

Full list of collaborators: 

Rebecca Emerton1,2, Ervin Zsoter1,2, Louise Arnal1,2, Prof. Hannah Cloke1, Dr. Liz Stephens1, Dr. Florian Pappenberger2, Prof. Christel Prudhomme2, Dr Peter Salamon3, Davide Muraro3, Gabriele Mantovani3

1 University of Reading
2 ECMWF
3 European Commission JRC

Contact: r.e.emerton@pgr.reading.ac.uk